Trump Arrives in Japan
WASHINGTON - As President Donald Trump makes his journey to Asia for a 12 day, five country trip, international security experts are urging him to “stick to the script” and avoid making incendiary comments while discussing North Korea.
The “America first” leader has engaged in an escalating war of words with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in recent months. Pyongyang has made significant advancements to its internationally condemned nuclear program this year and has repeatedly claimed that it is capable of striking the U.S. mainland with a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile. Kim’s regime is expected to be a key topic of discussion during Trump’s meetings in China, South Korea and Japan. As tensions rise, experts fear Trump’s response to the situation is only fanning the flames, not dousing the fire.
On Thursday, national security adviser H.R. McMaster told reporters Trump is unlikely to moderate his remarks overseas. This is hardly surprising to Catherine Dill, a defense analyst at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, but it is “absolutely concerning.” If Trump makes bellicose comments about Pyongyang during his travels through Asia, Dill worries possible reactions from the North Korean regime could range from moderate, such as a short range missile test, to severe, like a longer range missile launch that overflies Japan. On the other hand, Dill sees the trip as an opportunity for Trump to “reassure Japan and South Korea, and also try to have a measured, constructive conversation with China.”
Jeffrey Lewis, director of Middlebury’s East Asia Nonproliferation Program, also frets that more hostile statements or tweets from Trump about North Korea could exacerbate an already tense standoff between Washington and Pyongyang. Lewis does not anticipate a nuclear test or missile launch by North Korea during Trump’s Asia trip but notes that “it’s possible they’ll try to upstage” with such a provocation as a form of political messaging. North Korea could totally do that. That is the kind of thing that they would do,” but they tend to scale back their missile tests during the colder months, he explained.
The regime has timed several tests to coincide with politically significant events, including Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to America and the eve of Independence Day in the U.S. As to whether Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric would be more damaging if issued while he’s in Asia rather than back in Washington, Lewis said, “It’s all bad.” He likened the scenarios to choosing “between plague and cholera.”
